Sunday, June 27, 2010

Currency Majors Technical Perspective

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2378

Near past Friday’s New York closing levels, pair long term bias in the pair shows 1.2460 as a strong resistance area, ahead of 1.2520, quite close. If above this last, there is a chance of seeing the pair extending the rally towards the 1.30 area. Still sovereign debt woes, and banking crisis is not over in euro zone, and despite market is much less short in the common currency, the road to the upside will be a hard one.

Short term talking, pair seems to have quite a resistance around 1.2400, the 200 EMA in the 4 hours charts, with indicators losing upside momentum and 20 SMA quite flat, giving no clear cues for next sessions. I see some support around 1.2340, so under that level pair could fall to 1.2300/1.2280 area, ahead of strong 1.2240 zone.

Support levels: 1.2340 1.2300 1.2290

Resistance levels: 1.2400 1.2465 1.2520

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5040

The pair holds its quite a bullish tone since drawing a bottom around 1.44. With more or less strength, pair has been printing higher highs daily basis, supporting a bullish continuation as above 1.5000; hourly chart shows a strong momentum in the pair, thus CCI heads towards some downside corrective movement, that could reach the 1.5000 level, 38.2% retracement of last bullish rally; under this last, next support comes at 1.4960, and even there, will be just a corrective movement rather than a trend change. Above 1.5080, pair could resume uptrend, heading towards next resistances areas, 1.5120 and 1.5160, yet also 4 hours chart indicators seem a bit exhausted to the upside suggesting some downside corrections first.

Support levels: 1.5000 1.4960 1.4920

Resistance levels: 1.5080 1.5120 1.5160

USD/JPY Current price: 89.32

Close to key 89.20 support area, yen seems to be consolidating past week gains against dollar, with hourly chart showing flat indicators yet a general bearish tone, as per under 20 SMA with a bearish slope, while 4 hours ones seem to have find a bottom and heading back north, still far from a bullish signal. Pair will find now a tough level around 90.00 and unless above it, bias will remain bearish heading towards 88.00 lows.

Support levels: 89.20 88.80 88.50

Resistance levels: 89.60 89.90 90.20

AUD/USD current price: 0.8720

Aussie is back showing signs of strength, despite hourly indicators point for some downside correction ahead: pair has regained the 0.8700 level, and could attempt some corrections towards that level, where 4 hours 20 SMA should act as dynamic support. Under this last, 0.8630/40 area is next in line, yet only under a daily close under this last could jeopardize Australian dollar strength. 4 hours chart indicators are still above their mid lines suggesting the bullish tone persist despite current lack of strength.

Support levels: 0.8700 0.8640 0.8610

Resistance levels: 0.8750 0.8790 0.8840

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